Why has XRP – Ripple risen high and is now falling?

A well written article on medium and my curiosity into why Ripple has seen such a price increase and is now falling prompted me to dig into it. Here’s why I think we are seeing such big changes in XRP – Ripple price.

First, you might want to read this article about the difference between Ripple the company and XRP the currency.

Based on the information in the article, most of the volume of XRP is not institutional transactions, but private buyers – people like me and you who are buying XRP as a form of investment.

Let’s take a specific day to analyse – XRP was highest on 4th of january 2018: $3.81. What has driven most of the transactions?

Ripple is very good at sharing lots of data with us and showing it in a very nice visual way – check out their charts. Some nice graphics there!

But aside from being pretty, they are also useful. You can easily see the flow of XRP transactions and who are the big players.

If we look at november, the graph looks like the one on te right – CNY, XRP, BTC and USD are the big players. But none of them are too dominant.

It gets interesting once we start following XRP price increase into december – beginning of december looks like november, but towards the end:

CNY (Chinese Yuan) is taking over majority of the transactions – RippleChina and RippleFox being the major players.

This gets even more pronounced towards very end of december, and continues into january:

And on the 4th of january, where XRP price was the highest, China basically owns the thing:

What about now, when XRP price is dropping?

There is a small decrease in CNY volume, but no big change. Most of the volume is between the two exchanges – RippleChina and RippleFox – and they seem to be sending all these transactions between themselves. 

This begs a few questions – what transactions are they? Are they real transactions or some form of testing? Why almost none are external (cross border, say CNY – BTC, CNY – USD?). Why only so few CNY – XRP?

And why aren’t they the top ones on coinmarketcap.com by volume?

See XRP/CNY pair – it’s down at positions 35, way below all others. That’s a different story XRP charts above tell us. Is it high volume, low value transactions?

A lot of questions that I can’t answer (yet…). But hope this gives you some insight into what is going on in the XRP market and it’s price.

South Korea & Coinmarketcap.com don’t help either

Of course, the fact that South Korean exchanges have been removed from XRP price calculation on coinmarketcap.com (the ones with asterisk) doesn’t help – the price in South Korea is about 30% higher ($2.24 vs $1.65 as of 11th jan 2018).

Oh, BTW, last 24hrs volume (10th and 11th jan 2018) seems to be back to normal:

What’s your opinion on this strange behaviour?


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